Oct 25, 2026, 1:00 PMStock Market Outlook
S&P 500 Has Averaged 15.5% After Election Day Since 1950
S&P 500 returns averaged 15.5% from Election Day through June 30 in post-midterm periods since 1950, though the feed offered limited supporting detail.
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Summary
MarketWatch’s October 25, 2026 feed summary says the S&P 500 has delivered an average 15.5% return during the nine months between Election Day and June 30, based on data going back to 1950.
The headline presents this historical pattern as a possible source of relief after a stock market selloff, regardless of who wins the midterm elections. The full article was unavailable, and the summary disclosed no methodology, sample size, return range, party breakdown, or evidence that the pattern will recur.
Positives
- The S&P 500 averaged a 15.5% return between Election Day and June 30 in the cited historical periods.
- The cited record extends back to 1950, covering multiple election and market cycles.
- MarketWatch says potential post-midterm relief may emerge regardless of which party wins.
Risks & concerns
- The available feed summary provides no sample size, methodology, median return, or range of outcomes.
- The 15.5% average does not establish that every post-election period produced gains.
- The source offers no details about the current selloff or factors that could prevent the historical pattern from recurring.
Primary sourceMarketWatch.com - Top Storieshttps://www.marketwatch.com/story/worried-about-this-stock-market-selloff-relief-may-be-coming-after-the-midterms-no-matter-who-wins-39322c07?mod=mw_rss_topstories
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