Sep 23, 2026, 9:28 AMEconomy and Monetary Policy
Nomura Finds Hidden Flaws in Kevin Warsh’s Inflation Gauge
Nomura economists say Kevin Warsh's new inflation measure offers no better predictive power than core readings, though the source provides limited detail.
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Summary
Nomura economists said Kevin Warsh’s new method for tracking inflation does not offer better predictive power than core inflation readings, challenging the usefulness of the alternative measure.
MarketWatch published the report on September 23, 2026. Only a short feed summary was available, providing no details about the measure’s construction, tested data, forecast period or specific flaws identified by Nomura.
Positives
- Nomura compared Warsh’s inflation method with core readings, giving investors an independent assessment of its predictive value.
- Core inflation readings matched or exceeded the new method’s predictive power, supporting their continued relevance.
- The critique identifies potential flaws before Warsh’s measure gains broader reliance.
Risks & concerns
- Warsh’s new inflation measure showed no better predictive power than core readings, according to Nomura economists.
- The finding weakens the case that Warsh’s method improves inflation forecasting.
- The available summary omitted Nomura’s methodology, data, forecast horizon and the specific flaws behind its conclusion.
Primary sourceMarketWatch.com - Top Storieshttps://www.marketwatch.com/story/here-are-the-hidden-flaws-in-warshs-new-way-of-tracking-inflation-fb7939de?mod=mw_rss_topstories
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