Sep 29, 2026, 7:05 AMStock Market
Jim Paulsen’s Model Challenges November to April Stock Rally
Jim Paulsen’s lagged indicators challenge the usual November to April stock rally, with his model backtested to 1970 pointing to meagre returns ahead.
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Summary
Jim Paulsen believes lagged indicators show that stocks’ usual November to April “best buying season” may not apply this time. Backtesting his model to 1970 produced meagre returns, challenging expectations for the market’s typically strong six-month stretch.
MarketWatch published the item on September 29, 2026, but only a short feed summary was available. The source did not identify the indicators, market benchmark, methodology, return figures, or next steps, limiting assessment of the signal.
Positives
- November to April remains identified as stocks’ usual best buying season, despite Paulsen’s warning about the coming stretch.
- A backtest extending to 1970 gives Paulsen’s model a multidecade historical sample.
- Lagged indicators provide a countercheck against relying solely on the market’s familiar seasonal pattern.
Risks & concerns
- Paulsen’s lagged indicators suggest the usual November to April seasonal strength may not apply this time.
- Backtesting the model to 1970 showed meagre returns under the conditions highlighted.
- The feed summary omitted the indicators, benchmark, methodology, and return figures needed to evaluate the model fully.
Primary sourceMarketWatch.com - Top Storieshttps://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-stock-market-usually-booms-in-the-november-to-april-stretch-this-indicator-suggests-otherwise-f30a744e?mod=mw_rss_topstories
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